芈月传

北京时间5月16日凌晨4点左右，俄罗斯总统普京抵达北京。根据新华社发出的通稿，今天上午，中国领导人已经与普京举行了会谈。

二 |     The Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee, the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress (NPC), the State Council, the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) and the Central Military Commission (CMC) held a grand gathering at the Great Hall of the People on the morning of Aug. 17 to commemorate the birth centenary of Comrade Jiang Zemin, a great Marxist, proletarian revolutionary, statesman, military strategist and diplomat, and an exceptional leader for the cause of socialism with Chinese characteristics. General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee Xi Jinping, also Chinese president and chairman of the CMC, delivered an important speech, stressing the need to deeply cherish the memory of Jiang's towering achievements, thoroughly learn from his noble demeanor, and inspire the whole Party and the Chinese people of all ethnic groups to continuously advance the cause of socialism with Chinese characteristics.    Other members of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee Li Qiang, Zhao Leji, Wang Huning, Cai Qi, Ding Xuexiang and Li Xi, as well as Chinese Vice President Han Zheng, attended the gathering.    The atmosphere in the magnificent auditorium of the Great Hall of the People was solemn. Above the rostrum hung a banner which read "Gathering to Commemorate the Birth Centenary of Comrade Jiang Zemin." At the center of the backdrop was a giant portrait of the late leader, with the lettering "1926-2026" beneath it. Another banner hung on the second-floor observation deck read: "Rally Closely Around the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at Its Core. Hold High the Great Banner of Socialism with Chinese Characteristics. Adhere to the Party's Basic Theory, Basic Line and Basic Policy, and Strive Unremittingly to Build a Great Country and Advance National Rejuvenation on All Fronts Through Chinese Modernization."    At 10 a.m., the gathering opened to the resounding strains of China's national anthem.    In his important speech, Xi noted that Jiang lived a glorious life and a life of fighting and struggle, and worked tirelessly throughout his life to contribute to the cause of national independence and the liberation of the people, and to the prosperity of the country and the well-being of the people. Xi said Jiang played a leading role in making impressive and new progress in socialist material, political and cultural-ethical advancement and Party building, made indelible contributions to safeguarding the great cause of socialism with Chinese characteristics, breaking new ground in reform and opening-up in all respects, achieving overall moderate prosperity in people's livelihoods, and successfully advancing the cause of socialism with Chinese characteristics into the 21st century, and won the love and esteem of the whole Party, the entire military and the Chinese people of all ethnic groups, as well as the wide acclaim of the international community.    Through his revolutionary career that lasted for over 70 years, especially his great practices leading to the great achievements of the Party and the country following the fourth plenary session of the 13th CPC Central Committee, Jiang fully demonstrated his great talent, bold vision, critical role, and art of leadership as a Marxist statesman, and fostered noble demeanor that is always invaluable for us to learn from and always inspires us to move forward, Xi said.    Jiang remained steadfastly committed to communist ideals, devoted himself to the Party and the people, and worked hard for the cause of the Party and the people unswervingly, Xi noted. He called on all Party members to draw strength from Jiang's firm political conviction, never forget the original aspiration and the founding mission, foster firm belief in Marxism, conviction in communism, and confidence in socialism with Chinese characteristics, and remain committed to the Party's basic theory, line and policy.    All Party members were urged to be self-aware to enhance the "Four Consciousnesses" of maintaining political integrity, thinking in big-picture terms, following the leadership core, and keeping in alignment with the central Party leadership, reinforce the "Four-sphere Confidence" in the path, theory, system and culture of socialism with Chinese characteristics, and observe the "Two Upholds" for General Secretary Xi Jinping's core position on the CPC Central Committee and in the Party as a whole, and for the Central Committee's authority and its centralized, unified leadership.    Xi also called for efforts to adhere to the overall leadership of the Party and the centralized, unified leadership of the Central Committee, persevere with full and rigorous Party self-governance, and ensure that the Party remains the strong leadership core in building socialism with Chinese characteristics.    Xi stressed that Jiang stood firmly on the side of the people, cared about their well-being and shared their concerns, and made decisions and advanced the work based on the fundamental interests of the overwhelming majority of the people. Xi called for learning from Jiang's deep and genuine commitment to serving the people, keeping firmly in mind that the country is the people and the people are the country, upholding the people-centered development philosophy, and fostering and putting into practice a correct view of political performance. He called for standing firmly on the people's side, strengthening the awareness of being a public servant, following the Party's mass line in the new era, relying on the people to create history, and making solid progress in promoting the well-rounded development of individuals and the common prosperity of the entire population.    Moreover, Jiang remained committed to emancipating the mind, seeking truth from facts, and advancing with the times, Xi pointed out. Responding to the demands of the times and the needs of practice, Jiang continuously advanced innovation in theory, institutions, science and technology, culture and other fields. Party members should learn from Jiang's innovative spirit of keeping up with the times, integrating the basic tenets of Marxism with China's specific realities and fine traditional culture, and constantly opening up new ground for adapting Marxism to the Chinese context and the needs of the times. These efforts should promote further deepening reform and opening-up across the board, advancing the modernization of China's system and capacity for governance, stimulating creativity within the entire Party and society, and providing sustained impetus for economic and social development.    Xi also highlighted Jiang's broad vision and keen grasp of the major trends, which enabled him to assess situations in the overall development of China and the world as well as from the overall interests of the Party and the country. Jiang also advanced the cause of the Party and the country with a series of major decisions and important measures that carried significance to the world and the future.    The Party and the people should learn from the far-sighted strategic thinking of Jiang, Xi said. It is imperative to pursue a strategy of national rejuvenation amid global changes of a magnitude not seen in a century, advance the great struggle, the great project, the great cause, and the great dream, ensure coordinated implementation of the Five-Sphere Integrated Plan to promote coordinated progress in the economic, political, cultural, social and eco-environmental fields, and the Four-Pronged Comprehensive Strategy which highlights building a modern socialist country in all respects, driving reform to a deeper level, fully implementing the rule of law, and strengthening full and rigorous Party self-governance, fully and faithfully apply the new development philosophy on all fronts, move faster to create a new pattern of development, and make solid progress in promoting high-quality development. It is important to add more positive energy to world peace and development by implementing the Global Development Initiative, the Global Security Initiative, the Global Civilization Initiative and the Global Governance Initiative and striving for the building of a community with a shared future for humanity.    Xi noted that Jiang demonstrated decisive leadership in tackling risks and challenges and overcame difficulties and obstacles with great resolution at major historical junctures and critical moments, thereby opening up broad space and creating a favorable environment for China's modernization drive. It is necessary to learn from his extraordinary courage and vision, be more mindful of potential dangers, build up thinking to deal with worst-case scenarios, better coordinate development and security, get ready to withstand high winds, choppy waters, and even dangerous storms with a tenacious fighting spirit and superb ability to struggle, and resolutely safeguard national sovereignty, security, and development interests in a bid to write a new chapter in sustaining the two miracles of rapid economic growth and long-term social stability.    Through sustained efforts over the years, the cause of the Party and the country has been thriving, and the people have been enjoying peace and security with continuously improving livelihoods. The prospects for realizing the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation are bright, and the dream for which generations have worked tirelessly is becoming a reality step by step, Xi emphasized. He called on the whole Party, the entire military, and the Chinese people of all ethnic groups to stay closely rallied around the CPC Central Committee, hold high the banner of socialism with Chinese characteristics, remain confident and strive to build a great country and advance national rejuvenation on all fronts through Chinese modernization, thereby continuing to create better lives for the Chinese people and writing an even more splendid chapter for the Chinese nation.    When presiding over the gathering, Li Qiang pointed out that the important speech of General Secretary Xi Jinping reviewed Jiang's life of glory and struggle, spoke highly of the indelible contributions Jiang had made to the Party and the people, and systematically summarized his lofty bearing. In the speech, Xi called for earnest study of Jiang's unshakable political faith, sincere devotion to the people, forward-looking innovative spirit, far-sightedness and strategic thinking, as well as resolute and extraordinary courage.    Xi's speech is of political, ideological and theoretical significance, Li said, calling for all to gain a thorough understanding of its essence and earnestly implement its spirit. "We should rally more closely around the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core and follow the guidance of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era," Li said.    Li said the whole Party should gain a deep understanding of the "Two Affirmations" of Comrade Xi Jinping's core position on the Party Central Committee and in the Party as a whole, and of the guiding role of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, enhance the "Four Consciousnesses," bolster the "Four-sphere Confidence" and act on the "Two Upholds," so as to strive unremittingly to advance the cause of building a great country and national rejuvenation through Chinese modernization.    The gathering concluded to the solemn tunes of "The Internationale."    Also present at the event were: Wang Yi, Yin Li, Shi Taifeng, Liu Guozhong, Li Ganjie, Li Shulei, Li Hongzhong, He Lifeng, Zhang Guoqing, Chen Wenqing, Wen Jiabao, Jia Qinglin, Zhang Dejiang, Yu Zhengsheng, Li Zhanshu, Wang Yang, Li Lanqing, Zeng Qinghong, Li Changchun, He Guoqiang, Liu Yunshan, Wang Qishan, Zhang Gaoli, leaders of the Secretariat of the CPC Central Committee, the Standing Committee of the NPC, the State Council, the Supreme People's Court, the Supreme People's Procuratorate, the National Committee of the CPPCC and the CMC, as well as comrades who have retired from leading posts.    The participants also included leading officials of central Party and government departments, the military and people's organizations and of the Beijing Municipality; responsible chiefs of the central committees of the non-Communist parties, the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce, and representatives of non-party personages; members and alternate members of the CPC Central Committee present in Beijing; members of the NPC Standing Committee and members of the Standing Committee of the CPPCC National Committee in Beijing and representatives of veteran cadres and old comrades; Jiang's relatives, former staff members who once worked alongside him and representatives from his hometown as well as delegates to a symposium on Jiang's life and thought; representatives from all civilian sectors of the capital, and representative officers and soldiers of military units stationed in Beijing. About 6,000 people attended the gathering in total.    Prior to the event, Xi and other leaders cordially met with Jiang's family members and posed for group photographs with them.                    。

接下来，我将从宏观、地缘、战略的大格局出发，分析中国与俄罗斯的综合关系未来走向。

三 |

此外，我也会从微观的角度，解构最近的中美、中欧、中俄、俄罗斯和西方关系。

四 | 因为除了大的宏观格局，其中一些微观的内容也值得分析，甚至我也可以说说有些微妙的地方。

北京和莫斯科的时间相差5个小时，北京时间凌晨4点对应的是莫斯科时间昨晚11点，加上飞机从莫斯科到北京的几个小时航程，说明普京昨天下班后就直接去赶飞机了，行程非常繁忙。

五 |

普京今日凌晨4点抵达北京，我原本预估他上午会稍作休息，下午才开始正式的官式行程，但没想到他今天上午就和中国领导人见面了。

换句话说，他在飞机上休息了几个小时，下飞机之后再休整一两个小时之后，就开始了一天繁忙的工作行程。

今天上午，中俄双方领导人已经见面了，那么从今天下午开始，可能会展开一系列有关外交、军事、科技、企业、地方等各个部门的磋商，并签署一系列协议。所有的这些，加起来也就三个“半天”的时间，明天工作日结束后，普京将返回俄罗斯。

大家都知道，这是普京第五任期后的首次出访。而在不久前，普京还刚刚任命了新的内阁，其中尤其引人关注的是国防部长的任命，新国防部长并非军人出身，而是一个经济学家。这说明了普京的第五任期，有一个很缜密的战略部署。

当然，中国领导人也是日理万机，前不久才刚刚结束对欧洲三国的访问。

七 | 这三个国家都是与中国相对友好的国家，中国领导人的欧洲之行也是为了拓展欧洲的战略空间，体现了对欧洲的重视。

现在世界上其他势力都希望中俄关系出现缝隙 ，但是要想中俄关系因出现缝隙而出现分裂，这恐怕在相当长的一段时间内是难以想象的，因为这不是中俄之间双方是否愿意接近的问题，而是必须要接近的问题。

坦率来讲，从三十多年前冷战结束到现在，中俄关系一直如此。现在后冷战时代已经结束，一个新的冷战或准冷战时代开始了。因此，我们可以用一个不太恰当的比喻来形容中俄关系，那就是中俄关系就像美欧关系一样。

八 |

美国和欧洲的关系完全没有缝隙吗？这是不可能的，欧洲有自己的利益，美国也有自己的想法，美国对欧洲在施加压力，欧洲对美国也在施加压力，尤其最近几年。

但是，美欧之间从整体的，无论是意识形态还是战略利益，还是在二战结束之后的世界格局当中，他们都是很紧密的，未来中俄关系在大的方面上也是如此。

这就是中国所说的，我们不是盟友，但胜似盟友，而且中俄会在全球各种事务中加强统一协调，中俄关系是全方位的战略协作伙伴关系。

普京之所以在第五任期开始之后，便急急忙忙地首访中国，肯定是对中国有所求。

但是我们不说经济援助，因为里面有很多不同的分类，有的是商业意义上的，有的是战略支持上的，以及经济上的支持。

俄罗斯把国防部长换成了一个经济学家出身的前副总理，也是出于这方面考虑。

坦率来讲，这不仅是朋友之间战略上的互相支持，也是在商言商。

九 | 当然，中国和俄罗斯在价格方面也有很多要谈的地方。因此，后面三个“半天”，各个部门、企业、地方都会谈具体的事情。

十 |

那么除了俄罗斯有所求，中国对俄罗斯当然也有所关心和需求。

未来20年到30年，甚至50年，如果世界格局稳定的话，中俄可能会出现分家，这与中俄之间是否喜欢对方没有直接关系，甚至没有间接关系，这是势在必然，是本世纪上半叶的地缘战略格局使然。

坦率来讲，中国民间对俄罗斯的信任度和安全感还是不够的，我们以前常说中俄关系“上热下冷、政热经冷、老热青冷”，现在这个基本特征依然存在，所以中国方面也希望从俄罗斯方面得到保障。

十一 |

坦率来讲，俄乌战争对中国来说是一个双刃剑，这个问题涉及到中国的外部环境、战略环境以及中国的经济环境。

我们常说，中国已经具备了天时、地利和人和，中国过去四十多年的发展之所以很快，主要是因为天时，其次是地利和人和，但现在中国面临的最大问题不是地利和人和，而是天时。

在这个过程中，中俄关系、中美关系以及中西关系处得怎么样，对中国的这个“天时”外部环境有很大的关系。

所以，中国方面希望从普京那里听到他的真实想法和战略，以便我们能够早做准备。

第三，中国希望拥有一个和平长久发展的外部环境。所以哪怕西方对中国竭尽全力地打压，但中国依然对世界敞开大门，无论是签证还是其他方面的都是如此。

前段时间，中国领导人出访欧洲三国，有人说这是为了离间西方，但我不这么认为。因为这三个国家也有自己的利益，尤其是法国，我们是在平等的基础之上，在独立的外交的基础之上发展双边关系的。

但是法国对中国也有要求，毕竟他是西方的一份子，所以法国也要求中国减少对俄罗斯的援助，尤其是在双重用途方面，即军用和民用方面，减少对俄罗斯的支持。

这对中国来说是一个难题，因为西方人不讲道理。

十二 | 但是，如果中国不满足他们的要求，或者部分回应他们的要求，那就意味着即便是西欧国家中最靠近中国的法国、甚至德国，也会更加紧密地靠向美国这一边。

所以欧洲有欧洲的诉求、中国有中国的诉求、俄罗斯也有俄罗斯的诉求，我们未来与俄罗斯正常的经贸关系，相当一部分是被西方称之为双重用途的，那么该如何发展？这无疑是个难啃的骨头。

十三 |